The Domain of Space as we Know Today
For any well-read and reasonably aware individual,
it is well known that many countries have satellites and missiles, fewer have
missile defence and space programs and extremely few have sent humans to space
or have anti-satellite weapons. In this article, we'll concentrate on
anti-satellite warfare before placing it the diplomatic context.
There are three parts to taking out any satellite
in orbit - (1) Identification of target (2) Monitoring and forecasting
trajectory (3) Attack
Anti-Satellite (ASAT) Warfare
You need to have eyes at space to identify and
track down the target satellite. These are typically electro-optical
telescopes, ground based radars, space based telescopes and radio frequencies.
Technical capability is a major constraint here as the space assets /
satellites can be positioned at any altitude between LEO and GSO/GEO with
varying velocities and different inclinations, eccentricity and synchronicity of
orbits. Vast space requires higher resolution images that are best supported by
X band radars. X band radars are the most contentious part of the THAAD battery
and the S 300 missile defence as they enable deep surveillance capabilities.
The ARES Orbital Debris Program Office of NASA JSC
monitors all space debris. US is able to perform risk assessment with help of
Standards, Practices, Procedures and Software. It also conducts Hyper Velocity
Impact Technology experiments at their Houston facility with a lot of other
scientific research through their civilian arm of the space program. The United
States SSN, a part of USSTRATCOM, monitors all space objects (~8000 of
which ~560 are satellites) larger than 10 cm/10 pounds orbiting the earth. The
same objective of monitoring is also a part of the mandate for
NORAD-USNORTHCOM. As you can see, a unified combatant command with additional
military hardware like AWACS are deployed by for the stated purpose of
monitoring illegal air movement of drugs and homeland defence.
Once the target's orbital path is forecasted, the
decision to attack the target is made using one of the five possible
techniques. Three of the techniques involve kinetic kill warheads and two use
electromagnetic beams. Let us consider them one by one.
ASAT Techniques
The first method and the earliest method is ground
/ sea based ballistic missiles as kinetic kill warheads. China successfully
tested this method on a LEO satellite from a mobile
Transporter-Erector-Launcher (TEL) in 2007. This is similar to the
Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle concept of the US where the boost missile launches
the kill vehicle in an intercept trajectory at speeds of about 10 km/s. This is
a high velocity head-on collision with the target satellite. The US has
successfully used RM161 SM3 in 2008 and Russia has successfully tested PL19
Nudol in 2016 for the same purpose. In terms of classification though, these
are anti-ballistic missiles that were used.
The second method is the use of fighter or cargo
aircraft to launch similar kinetic kill vehicles. The ALBM technique was tested
during late 50s and early 60s by the US with limited success. The PGM-17 Thor
program of launching IRBM from cargo aircrafts as a stop gap measure by USAF
were more successful but had competitive rivalry with Jupiter missiles
developed by US Navy. The intention was also to carry thermonuclear warheads as
a second strike capability from UK. The US Vought ASM135 launch from a modified
F15 was successful in 1985 but the program was later abandoned.
The third technique is the use of a space based
asset to launch a kinetic kill warhead. The idea originated in the 1960s with
IS fighter satellite program started by the USSR as a co-orbital weapon that
would approach close enough to the target and explode shrapnels to destroy it.
The 14F11 Naryad system is believed to be space based battle stations being
pursued by Russia. The US has also pursued similar projects like XSS-11, NFIRE
and Space Based Interceptor for space launched ASAT warheads.
The fourth technique is the use of lasers, either
launched from ground or orbital space stations. The Soviets brought together
all research under one umbrella in their 12th five-year plan that ended up in
launching the unsuccessful SkifDM/Polyus station. The Soviets were responding
to the four stage US ASAT initiative starting with deploying over 4500 kinetic
interceptor satellites better known "Brilliant Pebbles" in LEO.
The fifth technique is the use of satellite jamming
typically from ground based devices with electromagnetic waves. While this is
not as destructive as kill vehicle, it still requires the three steps of
identification, forecasting trajectory and jamming a particular group of
channels / introducing malware from an exposed port. The speciality of this
technique is that it can be deployed terrestrially near receiving stations at
marginal cost.
Our Option(s)
We need to relate the economic and cultural context
while looking at our options. Many developing nations forego their cultural
identity and traditional wisdom in the great race to achieve economic parity.
It is not that the western powers have better stories or morals, they use
technology to capture and fashion the imagination of any bright young mind.
These stories wire coming generation into the societal beliefs, ethics and
norms of the west, emboldening their economic prowess. In economics, the
primary driver of GDP growth is technology and this is a gap that is
increasingly widening in favour of the west. Choosing between ASAT and not is
like choosing between the gun and sword. The sane smaller guy would always go
in for the gun.
My article is neither a deep dive into the cost
benefit analysis of any of these techniques nor an opinion on the superiority
of one over the other and also not a critique of ASAT programs. The only
question worth asking is, when do we decide to have our own ASAT? We may not be
attacking but we sure need to be defending across all of them. Any such layer
of defence needs to have an ecosystem that makes it self-sustaining. The domain
of space science and technology is immense and we need to invest wisely. While
the core R&D is confidential, a partnership with our academic institutions
and industry players may play a pivotal role in accelerating our growth
journey.
Is it pre-emptive attack the only viable defence
option available in Space? The rest of this article attempts to answer this
very question.
Our Typical Imagination of Space
“To boldly go where no man has gone before” is
perhaps the most well-known dialogue from “Star Trek”. Space makes us want to
explore the unknown frontiers, discover mysteries, explain phenomenon and to
many take photos, talk to far off friends and send videos. The utilization of
space with assets has been mostly to the same effect as the imagination I mentioned. All
this silently presumes that humanity is united and is run like an efficient
one-party communist style leadership. And that there are the heroes in men that
lead this space race. This dream is not a vision, but more wishful thinking.
CubeSats take away the immense cost and
technological might required for space presence and show how space is being
democratized. Space where growth is happening for each and it would happen most
probably in the manner we have grown most, i.e. by competition. But let’s come
back to this towards the end. This article’s focus is to lay the philosophical
foundation of the new realm of defence in space.
The Imperative of Security in Any Idea of a Nation
We humans are still a species that is still tribal
in mindset. Our rapidly increasing population has further entrenched this
feature, in spite of ever strengthening opposing force of technology. Animals
have territories, and educated Homo Sapiens have borders. Yet we progressed
exponentially. It happened not because borders were removed but because they
were negotiated.
A collection of humans called a nation tries to
preserve and perpetuate its way of living. Since it is the judged making the
judgement, we ourselves won’t ever agree on which nation deserve to take over
the world on its merit and the rest should cease to exist. We’ll play the game
of international trade and politics. What keeps us busy growing and negotiating
is our confidence in our security, military if I had to state it narrowly. Now
we are crossing the decades of “soft powers” where the word military is
replaced by culture, though again it defines security narrowly.
The narrow definition of security is the reason why
it ends up being reactive and never enough. The alternative is strength, which
is best defined as heightened state of alertness + scalpel precision moves at
favourable inflexion points. Let’s go through how the world looks from the lens
of alertness, which for a species that still fighting for survival, I would
call “level of attack”.
A vicious cycle exists in the current geopolitical
landscape where more power means more money and more money means more power.
But there is another corollary to this that I’ll come to towards the end.
The Low Level of Attack – Hibernate Mode
In this mode we choose to actively grow when the
environment is suitable and we choose to hold on to the status quo till the bad
environment blows over. The massively complex space programme grows in good
times through authentic intentions of a few despite the bureaucracy. We seek to
grow for our own needs and aspirations with our limited means and are not
willing to know too much about our neighbours, let alone the other side of the
globe. Our rockets can launch our satellites so that we can watch our crops
grow well and provide better forecast before disasters. In the worst case of a
battle, our armed forces and planes may use our own navigation system but
that’s all there is to it. We close our eyes to what is visible but is not our
concern. This mode is better known as “Strategic Restraint”. In the animal
world, it is better known as hibernation of the reptiles. The reptiles did rule
the earth, but those dinosaurs one day went extinct.
High Level of Attack – Dominate Mode
This is the mode of existence where the nation
chooses to push its way by requests, coaxing, hard bargaining, sabre rattling
and all-out war. In geopolitics this translates to trade treaties, economic
unions, sanctions, war games, human rights and militancy elimination. In space,
it means active use of spy satellites, blocking satellite communication,
listening to all communication routed through hardware and if required,
spreading misinformation and computer viruses. Anti-Satellite (ASAT) weapons
have been successfully operationalized by US, Russia and China. While the
discussions continue over the choice of method (laser/missile ground/air
launched), the feasibility of hitting targets at variable altitudes given
redundancy and space debris causing collateral damage, ASATs continue to be
developed as a retaliatory if not offensive tactic.
Note that there is unrestricted use of all
traditional means of warfare with impact multiplicatively increased by using
space tech as the fulcrum. Space is utilized seamlessly with military, IT,
diplomacy and trade & finance as it is with movies, telephones, education,
medicine and video conferencing. Each opportunity that becomes available for
increasing the nation’s might is exploited. Superpowers would typically be in
this mode to sustain their hegemony, even though it is taxing on resources that
can be more optimally utilized in the long run. US' proposed space force as a
separate wing in the armed forces is the first move in of a superpower in this
mode.
The Middle Level of Attack – Peace Mode
The middle path is usually the most balanced mode
of living. Unlike the hibernation mode, we choose to see, hear and sense
everything for everyone. And unlike the dominate mode, we act only in those
cases with a minimum force when events and things would provide exponential
extremely long run favourable returns. This means we understand and create all
the cutting edge in science and technology, weaponize most of it, and yield
hardly a few. It is important to note that in the Peace Mode we deploy means to
protect our space assets. We are doing what our species did to become the
masters of the earth – we stayed alert for the lion through generations, till
finally we created our own jungle and forced the king lion to stay within the
“national park” as we saw fit.
Foundation for Future Dominance in a No Man’s Land
Science fiction and artists’ imaginations have
spoken a lot about what our future space world would be like. More often than
not, they were reflections of freedom from their respective state of world.
Perhaps a more actionable imagination would come if we can imagine a current
nation with its citizens inhabiting different planets. The time gap between two
parts of any nation and the globe would be large enough to make the theory of
demand and supply in economics to fail. More simply said, goods produced on one
planet would be sold after 20 years on another planet – so what drives a
nation’s monetary / fiscal policy or target inflation/interest rate or its
exchange rate and trade pacts?
The technology trend driving this growth is creating
an engine to create and consume more data, way beyond what humans’ minds can
manage. The only way left is to allow machines to manage growing needs of
machines i.e. machines start taking over decision making over large data sets
using Artificial Intelligence (AI). No prizes for inferring that automation via
AI is a prerequisite for survival in space.
We had left two dangling points regarding
competition and vicious circle of money and power in the beginning. Our biggest
strength arguably lies in large scale cooperation across vast numbers of
people. Competition between groups needs cooperation within the group.
Competition exists to have more power and money. Money and power tend to
concentrate not within people but organizations and institutions. Putting these
together, we are looking at a space era where a nation would be philosophically
defined as the group of homo sapiens living across planets that choose to
create organizations and institutions best preserving and perpetuating their
way of life. The components of that imagination are covered in a later article.
In conclusion, the peace mode of space age
reverberates with thoughts of two of the greatest founding fathers of our
nation. Gandhi once said quoting Shri Rabindra Nath Tagore, "I hope I am
as great a believer in free air as the great Poet. I do not want my house to be
walled in on all sides and my windows to be stuffed. I want the cultures of all
the lands to be blown about my house as freely as possible. But I refuse to be
blown off my feet by any". We need our vision of our sanatan civilization
to preserve our way of life and at a tactical level this means we have our ASAT
now.
Written on 25-Dec-2018
